India Quick Commerce Market Outlook 2026–2031
The five-year demand, dark-store economics and kirana-impact forecast built on Lumera's 22,400-store retail panel.
Market size
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Forecast
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CAGR
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What this report answers
India's quick-commerce sector closed 2025 with roughly ₹640 billion in gross merchandise value and, for the first time, a plausible claim to unit-economics maturity in its top eight cities. This report is the complete reference on where the sector goes next, built on Lumera's proprietary panel of 22,400 kiranas, dark-store catchment mapping across eleven cities, and channel checks with forty-one FMCG distributors.
The core forecasting problem in quick commerce is not demand — it is density economics. The report models breakeven contribution per dark store across rent, picker productivity, basket composition and take-rate trajectories, then maps the addressable catchments in India's top thirty cities under three density scenarios. The answer: headroom for 3,100 to 3,900 viable dark stores by 2031, against roughly 2,050 operational today.
Retailers, FMCG companies and landlords each get a dedicated strategy chapter, because each faces a different version of the same question: how much of Indian grocery moves through a thirty-minute promise, and what does that do to the economics of everything it touches?
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